New calculations run by Jérémie Vaubaillon (Paris Observatory, IMCCE) highlighted a potential new meteor outburst prediction for the 2024 Leonids. The 2024 IMO Meteor Shower Calendar has been updated accordingly.
In 2024, the “normal” maximum of the Leonid meteor shower is expected to occur on November 17, 04h UT, with ZHR ~ 15-20 (Mikhail Maslov expects slightly enhanced rates). In addition to this, some additional outbursts were expected :
- Mikiya Sato find an encounter with the 1733 dust trail on November 19/20, between 23h 53min and 00h 54min UT. The minimum distance is quite large (-0.0002 au), and ejection velocity being high, the rates shall be low.
- initial predictions by Jérémie Vaubaillon highlighted encounters with very old trails (ejected about 1000 years ago) of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle on November 14, 16h 37min UT.
But after checking, one trail has been underviewed : on that date and time, the Earth orbit should cross the 1633 trail (which caused the 2001 meteor storm) of the comet (Figures 1 & 2) on November 14, 16h 37min UT too.
As the comet is currently far away from the perihelion position, and that the trail is composed of small meteoroids (< 1 mm), rates are hard to predict. Even if rates are high, the meteor showers should be composed of faint meteors, and the bright waning gibbous Moon will be a considerable nuisance. But anyway, this potential outburst is worth monitoring, in case anything happens. Especially because the Earth should cross it again in 2034…
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