Meteor Activity Outlook for October 5-11, 2007

Meteor activity in general increases in October when compared to September. A major shower (the Orionids) is active most of the month along with several minor showers. Both branches of the Taurids become more active as the month progresses, providing slow, graceful meteors to the nighttime scene. The Orionids are the big story of the month reaching maximum activity on the 21st. This display can be seen equally well from both hemispheres which definitely helps out in the sporadic-poor southern skies this time of year.

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Thursday October 11. At this time the moon is located close to the sun and is invisible during the nighttime hours. This weekend the waning crescent moon is a small nuisance and less of a problem as the week progresses. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near four for those located north of the equator and two for observers south of the equator. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near fifteen for those located in the northern hemisphere and seven for those viewing from south of the equator. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity. Morning rates are slightly reduced due to moonlight during this period.

The radiant positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 6/7. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is a sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

The following showers are expected to be active this week:

Sirko Molau's studies of video radiants has revealed activity in Ursa Minor between October 10 and 16, peaking on the 12th. The position at maximum activity (very close to the current position) is 16:32 (248) +82. This position lies in central Ursa Minor near the faint star Epsilon Ursae Minoris. Visual activity is expected to be low, but detectable. The radiant is best placed as soon as it becomes dark during the evening hours. At 35km/sec., the average Epsilon Ursae Minorid will appear as medium-slow.

The Draconids (GIA) are predicted to peak on October 9 near 0430 Universal Time. This corresponds to the evening hours of October 8 for those located in the American longitudes. The radiant is located at 17:28 (262) +54, which places it in southern Draco, two degrees northwest of the third magnitude star Rastaban (Beta Draconis). This star is one of the four that form the prominent head of Draco, also known as the "Lozenge". Expected rates are always a guess but usually quite low. Due to the extreme northern declination, this shower is only visible from the southern tropics northward. The radiant is best placed just as it becomes dark during the evening hours. At 20km/sec., the average Draconid is extremely slow.

At this time of year debris from comet 2P/Encke produces a double radiant very close to the position of the antihelion radiant. From now through the end of November, it is impossible to resolve the antihelion meteors from those produced by comet 2P/Encke. Therefore we suggest that observers simply classify meteors from this area as either north or south Taurids. Although the radiants actually lie in Aries during October, they reach maximum activity in November when they are situated in the constellation of Taurus.

The Northern Taurid (NTA) radiant is now centered at 01:52 (028) +14. This position lies in western Aries, five degrees south of the fourth magnitude star Mesarthim (Epsilon Arietis). The Southern Taurid (STA) radiant lies at 02:00 (030) +08. This position lies in southeastern Pisces, six degrees north of the fourth magnitude star Alrischa. The two radiants are separated by slightly over five degrees. Since they have nearly the same right ascension (celestial longitude), it is difficult to distinguish meteors that move north or south out of the radiants. It is slightly less difficult to distinguish those meteors traveling east or west. At 29 and 27 km/sec., the average Taurid meteor travels slowly through the skies.

The Orionids (ORI) are just beginning to appear from a radiant located at 05:44 (86) +14. This position lies in extreme eastern Taurus, five degrees northwest of the orange first magnitude star Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis). The radiant rises near 2300 LDT and is best placed on the meridian near 0500. With maximum activity predicted for October 21, current rates for all locations would be near one or two per hour At 64km/sec., the average Orionid is swift.

The Delta Aurigids (DAU) are present in the morning skies in the second half of September and early October. Maximum activity occurs on October 4 with an average ZHR of two. Current rates will be most likely less than one per hour. The radiant is located 06:00 (090) +49. This position lies in northern Auriga, four degrees north of the second magnitude star Menkalinan (Beta Aurigae). Note that in my last meteor outlook the position of this shower was given for the 25th of September, not the 30th. The correct position for the 30th is six degrees further east at 05:32 (083) +49. At 64km/sec., the average Delta Aurigid is swift.

Sporadic rates have nearly reached maximum for observers in the northern hemisphere and are now slowly rising for those located south of the equator. One would expect to see approximately twelve random meteors during the last hour before dawn from rural observing sites in the northern hemisphere. During the first dark hour after the end of evening twilight, perhaps four random meteors can be seen per hour. As seen from the southern hemisphere late morning rates would now be near four per hour. During the first dark hour after the end of evening twilight, perhaps two random meteors can be seen per hour. Morning rates are slightly reduced due to moonlight during this period.