The Geminid peak is expected to occur on December 14 around 0630UT. The shower has a broad maximum. Recent modelling and analysis of visual and video data has shown that the activity level is increasing and – according to the model – will continue to do so. A few meteoroids released from Phaethon in 2009 may approach the Earth in 2017 and may appear at 262.45 deg solar longitude (December 14, near 12 UT). This research by Galina Ryabova and Jurgen Rendtel will be published in Monthly Notices soon (PDF).

Both the model and the analysis of available data does not hint on any kind of outburst, but of course it is important to obtain observational data to improve the model and to establish the general activity level evolution.


Any observational reports are welcome. Clear skies!

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