Bad luck: when 2026 JN4 was discovered, on May 15th, 2026, the Sun was rising above the United States, making the follow up of the small asteroid hard to organize! A few hours later the same day, around 13h 40min UT, only 6 observations of it were completed before the object entered the atmosphere, in a region extending from North-Western Australia to Micronesia.

Figure 1- 2026 JN4 orbit calculated by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Credit: NASA/CNEOS
Figure 1- 2026 JN4 orbit calculated by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Credit: NASA/CNEOS

A barely observed small asteroid

That’s unfortunate: quickly after N. Saini reported the detection of a meter-sized asteorid observed with JPL SynTrack Robotic Telescope, ESA’Meerkat automated monitoring system, as well as JPL’s Scout system calculated a very high impact probability for the small object, then named ST26E86 with an expected impact zone a few hours later (May 15th, 2026, around 13h 42min UT) located from North-Western Australia to Micronesia, and passing over North of Papua New-Guinea. But at the same time, very few observatories were still in the night, and others faced bad weather and cloudy skies… 6 observations only later, the trajectory was refined and confirmed the impact trajectory, predicted to occur at position close to lat. = 8.62476° S ; long = 137.34220° E at 13h 36min UT.

This is thus the 12th asteroid to be observed in space before its atmospheric entry, the last one being 2024 XA1 over the area of Sakha Republic (Russia) in December 2024.

No direct confirmation or data of the 2026 JN4 atmospheric entry

Up to date, there was no direct confirmation of the meteoroid atmospheric entry: no visual reports, neither radio, radar, or infrasonic recordings show signs of the meteor. Satellite imagery was also analysed without success.
Let’s wait and see…

Sources

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