Ursids 2007: Possible Outburst?

This poorly observed shower showed enhanced activity quite a few times over the last decades and has produced at least two real outbursts. An international team led by Peter Jenniskens predicts a new outburst for this year, peaking at 20h - 22h15 UT on December 22 with a full-width at half peak intensity of about 2 - 8.5 hours (most likely around 5 hours). The timing and the location of the radiant favours locations in Europe and Asia. The ZHR is expected to reach up to 40 - 80, or up to 8 times normal activity. If the outburst materializes, you can realistically expect to see one meteor every two minutes from dark locations.

Although it is almost full moon, observations using any method are encouraged. Visual observations can be reported using the electronic report form to be included in the Ursids Visual Data Quicklook Page.

For more information on the predictions, check the NASA AMES research center website.