Shower Analysis

The annual Quadrantids meteor shower is expected to show its traditional short but intense peak in the morning of January 4th, in the hours surrounding 7h Universal Time. Alastair McBeath writes in the 2012 Shower Calendar: Waxing gibbous moonset for the predicted Quadrantid maximum leaves several dark-sky hours for visual observing before morning twilight begins from northern hemisphere sites this year. From many such places, the shower's radiant is circumpolar, in northern Boötes, first attaining a useful elevation after local midnight, improving steadily later, making this a reasonably favourable return.

The activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes, based on visual observations submitted by citizen scientists through the IMO report form - click for details.

Alastair McBeath writes in the 2011 Shower Calendar: The most recent perihelion passage of the Leonids' parent comet, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, in 1998 may be more than a decade ago now, but the shower's activity has continued to be fascinatingly variable from year to year recently. This year might produce enhanced rates (though these may be observable using only particularly sensitive radio and radar systems), and theoretical work has suggested there may be several peaks. - The activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes - click for details.

Jérémie Vaubaillon has indicated part of the 1800 AD dust trail may be encountered around 22h36m UT on November 16, and could produce ZHRs of ∼ 200. Unfortunately, the dust particles involved are expected to be exceptionally small, of order 10–100 microns, and this could mean no optically-detectable meteors at all. This activity may be observable instead as an increase in underdense radio meteor echoes, by those systems capable of recording the equivalent of such 'invisibly-faint' meteors, and by sensitive radar meteor systems. Mikhail Maslov has proposed that there may be two peaks, one on November 17, around 21h UT, when ZHRs may be ∼ 5–10 above the underlying 'normal' activity, the second on November 18 near 23h UT, with ZHRs of ∼ 10 above normal. Taking the typical ZHR to be ∼ 10–15 could suggest ZHRs at either might be ∼ 20 ± 5. The second peak he noted may produce somewhat fainter than average meteors, however. Another potential maximum time is that given above for the nodal crossing, when ZHRs are liable to be simply 'normal'.

The annual Orionids meteor shower should reach a maximum on October 21.

The activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes - click for details.

Observers across Europe and Asia report that a peak in the Draconids meteor activity occurred near 20h UT on October 8, 2011.

Visual ZHR by human observers: (click for more details)

Video meteor flux from camera observing stations in the IMO network:

Draconids with persistent trains were captured using the Liverpool Telescope in La Palma:

The eta-Aquariids are expected to peak on the evening of 2011 May 6 (ZHR ~60). The radiant of this shower in Aquarius rises rather late in the night. Northern obserevrs should use the last morning hour, mid-southern hemisphere observers have a longer observing window. Visual observations can be reported through the Report Form and are highly appreciated. The observations are automatically included in an automated ZHR graph. Note that meteor numbers far from the maximum may be very low and lead to highly uncertain ZHRs.