Activity Outlook

Weekly Meteor Activity Outlook articles by Bob Lunsford. Bob gives outlooks to upcoming meteor activity about once a week. He features showers from the working list of meteor showers as well as suspected radiants. Please refer only to the radiants of the Working list of visual meteor showers in observing reports.

Meteor Activity Outlook for March 17-23, 2006

With the arrival of March, we reach the nadir of meteor activity for the year. No matter your location, March has the lowest mean meteor rates of any month of the year. The only reasonable activity is produced by the Eclipticid radiant, now located in Virgo. Even this activity is only 2-3 shower members at best. At least this is one of the prime times for fireballs. From February through April, fireballs are frequently reported during the evening hours.

The moon reaches its last quarter phase on Wednesday March 22. This weekend and for the remainder of this period, the moon will be present in the sky most of the night, limiting the meteor activity to be seen. The sources of meteors listed below are active during this period but will be difficult to observe. If your sky is transparent and the limiting magnitude exceeds +5.0, then you may be able to achieve some success at observing during this period. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near two for those in the Northern Hemisphere and three for those located in the Southern Hemisphere. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near four for those located in the Northern Hemisphere and six for those in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion

Meteor Activity Outlook for March 10-16, 2006

With the arrival of March, we reach the nadir of meteor activity for the year. No matter your location, March has the lowest mean meteor rates of any month of the year. The only reasonable activity is produced by the Eclipticid radiant, now located in Virgo. Even this activity is only 2-3 shower members at best. At least this is one of the prime times for fireballs. From February through April, fireballs are frequently reported during the evening hours.

The moon reaches its full phase on Tuesday March 14. This weekend and for the remainder of this period, the moon will be present in the sky most of the night, limiting the meteor activity to be seen. The sources of meteors listed below are active during this period but will be difficult to observe. If your sky is transparent and the limiting magnitude exceeds +5.0, then you may be able to achieve some success at observing during this period. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near two for those in the Northern Hemisphere and three for those located in the Southern Hemisphere. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near four for those located in the Northern Hemisphere and six for those in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity. Rates are reduced this week due to intense moonlight

Meteor Activity Outlook for March 3-9, 2006

With the arrival of March, we reach the nadir of meteor activity for the year. No matter your location, March has the lowest mean meteor rates of any month of the year. The only reasonable activity is produced by the Eclipticid radaint, now located in Virgo. Even this activity is only 2-3 shower members at best. At least this is one of the prime times for fireballs. From February through April, fireballs are frequently reported during the evening hours.

The moon reaches its first quarter phase on Monday March 6. At this time the moon will set near midnight, allowing the more active morning hours to be free of moonlight. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week should be near two no matter your location. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near eight for Northern Hemisphere observers and ten for those located in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity. Evening rates are reduced slightly due to moonlight.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 24-March 2, 2006

At this time of year most of the meteor shower activity is produced by weak radiants located in the deep southern portion of the sky. A majority of these radiants produce rates much less than that of the sporadic background (random meteors) therefore the possibility of chance alignments is high, even for observers located in the Southern Hemisphere, where these radiants rise higher into the sky. These showers are often not included on lists intended for visual observers. They are presented here to offer targets for those observers who carefully plot the meteor activity they see and those who use other methods of meteor observing such as telescopic, photographic, and video. I would advise a majority visual observers to concentrate on reporting the activity of showers posted on the IMO list. These showers offer the best opportunity to see activity other than that produced by the sporadic background.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 17-23, 2006

At this time of year most of the meteor shower activity is produced by weak radiants located in the deep southern portion of the sky. A majority of these radiants produce rates much less than that of the sporadic background (random meteors) therefore the possibility of chance alignments is high, even for observers located in the Southern Hemisphere, where these radiants rise higher into the sky. These showers are often not included on lists intended for visual observers. They are presented here to offer targets for those observers who carefully plot the meteor activity they see and those who use other methods of meteor observing such as telescopic, photographic, and video. I would advise majority visual observers to concentrate on reporting the activity of showers listed among the showers of the I.M.O. These showers offer the best opportunity to see activity other than that produced by the sporadic background.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 10-16, 2006

This weekend and for the remainder of this period, the moon will be present in the sky most of the night, limiting the meteor activity to be seen. The sources of meteors listed below are active during this period but will be difficult to observe. If your sky is transparent and the limiting magnitude exceeds +5.0, then you may be able to achieve some success at observing during this period. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near two for those in the Northern Hemisphere and three for those located in the Southern Hemisphere. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near six for those located in the Northern Hemisphere and twelve for those in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity. Rates are reduced this week due to intense moonlight.

The full listing will continue next week when the moon reaches its last quarter phase and is not such a nuisance to observers.

[CSV] Shower, Maximum, Celestial PostitionRA (RA in Deg.) DEC, Entry VelocityKm/Sec, CulminationLocal Standard Time, Hourly RateNorth-South, Class* Delta Velids (DVE), Feb 14, 08:40 (130) -51, 35, 0:00, >1 – >1, IV Eclipticids (ECL), Mar 24, 11:08 (167) +09, 28, 2:00, 2 – 1, II Omicron Centaurids (OCE), Feb 14, 11:40 (175) -55, 51, 3:00, >1 - 1, IV Theta Centaurids (TCE), Feb 14, 13:52 (208) -40, 60, 4:00, >1 – 1, IV Alpha Centaurids (ACE), Feb 8, 14:24 (216) -60, 56, 5:00, >1 – 4, II [/CSV]

detailed explanation on the different classes of meteor showers and other astronomical terms.