Activity Outlook

Weekly Meteor Activity Outlook articles by Bob Lunsford. Bob gives outlooks to upcoming meteor activity about once a week. He features showers from the working list of meteor showers as well as suspected radiants. Please refer only to the radiants of the Working list of visual meteor showers in observing reports.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 16-22, 2013

During this period the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Sunday February 17th. At this time the moon is located ninety degrees east of the sun and sets near midnight local standard time (LST) as seen from mid-northern latitudes. As the week progresses the waxing gibbous moon will set during the early morning hours, allowing a few hours of dark skies between the time of moon set and the beginning of morning twilight. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near two as seen from the northern hemisphere and four as seen from south of the equator. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near eight from the mid-northern hemisphere and seventeen from the mid-southern hemisphere.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 9-15, 2013

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Sunday February 10th. At this time the moon is located near the sun and is invisible at night. As the week progresses the waxing crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will not interfere with meteor observing. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near three as seen from the northern hemisphere and five as seen from south of the equator. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near nine from the mid-northern hemisphere and eighteen from the mid-southern hemisphere.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 2-8, 2013

February offers the meteor observer in the northern hemisphere a couple of weak showers plus falling sporadic rates. This may not seem too exiting but you never know when surprises are in store. An errant earthgrazer from the Centaurid complex may shoot northward. Better yet, a bright fireball may light up the sky. February is the start of the fireball season, when an abundance of fireballs seem to occur. This lasts well into April and seems to occur mostly during the early evening hours.

Meteor Activity Outlook for January 26-February 1, 2013

During this period the moon reaches its full phase on Sunday January 27th. At this time the moon will be located opposite the sun and will be in the sky all night long. As the week progresses the moon will rise a little later each evening but there is little meteor activity to be seen during the dark evening hours. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near two for observers located at mid-northern latitudes and one for observers in mid-southern latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near eight from the mid-northern hemisphere and four from the mid-southern hemisphere.

Meteor Activity Outlook for January 12-18, 2013

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Friday January 11th. At this time the moon is located near the sun and will remain invisible at night. Next week the waxing crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will set long before the more active morning hours arrive. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near three no matter your location. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near fifteen from the mid-northern hemisphere and eleven from the mid-southern hemisphere. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity.

Meteor Activity Outlook for December 29, 2012-January 4, 2013

During this period the moon wanes from its current full phase to a little more than one-half illuminated on January 4, 2013. This weekend the waning gibbous moon will rise during the early evening hours and will effectively ruin the sky with intense moonlight the remainder of the night. As the week progresses the moon will rise a little later each evening but the more active morning hours will still be compromised by moonlight. The strong Quadrantid meteor shower will peak on Thursday morning January 3rd, with a bright gibbous moon located near the Leo-Virgo border. Activity can be still seen from the Quadrantids if your skies are clear and transparent.