Activity Outlook

Weekly Meteor Activity Outlook articles by Bob Lunsford. Bob gives outlooks to upcoming meteor activity about once a week. He features showers from the working list of meteor showers as well as suspected radiants. Please refer only to the radiants of the Working list of visual meteor showers in observing reports.

Meteor Activity Outlook for October 18-24, 2014

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Thursday October 23th. At this time the moon is located near the sun and cannot be seen at night. This weekend the waning crescent moon will rise during the early morning hours but will offer little trouble as long as the observer keeps the moon out of their field of view. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from the northern hemisphere and 2 as seen from southern tropical latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 12 for observers located in mid-northern latitudes and 7 for south tropical observers. Rates are slightly reduced for the morning hours during this period due to moonlight.

Meteor Activity Outlook for October 11-17, 2014

During this period the moon reaches its last quarter phase on Wednesday October 15th. At this time the moon is located 90 degrees west of the sun and will be above the horizon from midnight onward. Although not perfect, these conditions will allow successful meteor observations as long as the observer keeps the moon out of their field of view. This weekend the waning gibbous moon will rise during the late evening hours and will severely impact the number of meteors visible. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from the northern hemisphere and 2 as seen from southern tropical latitudes.

Meteor Activity Outlook for October 4-10, 2014

Meteor activity in general increases in October when compared to September. A major shower (the Orionids) is active most of the month along with many minor showers. Both branches of the Taurids become more active as the month progresses, providing slow, graceful meteors to the nighttime scene. The Orionids are the big story of the month reaching maximum activity on the 22nd. This display can be seen equally well from both hemispheres which definitely helps out observers located in the sporadic-poor southern hemisphere this time of year.

Meteor Activity Outlook for September 27-October 3, 2014

During this period the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Wednesday October 1st. At this time the moon is located 90 degrees east of the sun and sets near midnight local daylight time (LDT). This weekend the waxing crescent moon will set during the mid-evening hours and will not interfere with viewing during the active morning hours. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 4 as seen from the northern hemisphere and 3 as seen from southern tropical latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 16 for observers located in mid-northern latitudes and 12 for south tropical observers.

Meteor Activity Outlook for September 20-26, 2014

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Tuesday September 23rd. At this time the moon is located near the sun and is not visible at night. This weekend the waning crescent moon will rise just before the start of morning twilight and will be too thin to bother meteor observers. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 4 as seen from the northern hemisphere and 3 as seen from southern tropical latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 16 for observers located in mid-northern latitudes and 10 for south tropical observers.

Meteor Activity Outlook for September 13-19, 2014

During this period the moon reaches its last quarter phase on Tuesday September 16th. At this time the moon is located 90 degrees west of the sun and rises near midnight local daylight time (LDT) for observers located in mid-northern latitudes. As the week progresses the moon will continue to wane and will be less of a problem for meteor observers. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 4 as seen from the northern hemisphere and 3 as seen from southern tropical latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 14 for observers located in mid-northern latitudes and 9 for south tropical observers.