Activity Outlook

Weekly Meteor Activity Outlook articles by Bob Lunsford. Bob gives outlooks to upcoming meteor activity about once a week. He features showers from the working list of meteor showers as well as suspected radiants. Please refer only to the radiants of the Working list of visual meteor showers in observing reports.

Meteor Activity Outlook for 13-19 August 2016

During this period the moon reaches its full phase on Thursday August 18th. At this time the moon will lie opposite the sun and will lie above the horizon all night long. This weekend the waxing gibbous moon will set shortly before the start of dawn, obscuring many of the fainter meteors that would otherwise be seen in a darker sky . The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 for observers located in the northern hemisphere and 2 for observers located in tropical southern locations (25S). For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 40 for observers located in the northern hemisphere and 20 for observers located in tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for 6-12 August 2016

During this period the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Wednesday August 10th. At this time the moon will lie 90 degrees east of the sun and will set near midnight local summer time for observers located in mid-northern latitudes. This weekend the slender waxing crescent moon will set during the late evening hours and will not interfere with viewing meteor activity. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 5 for observers located in the northern hemisphere and 4 for observers located in tropical southern locations (25S). For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 40 for observers located in the northern hemisphere and 25 for observers located in tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for 30 July- 6 August 2016

Meteor activity kicks into high gear in August as seen from the northern hemisphere. The main reason for all this activity is the Perseid shower that peaks on August 12th. This shower is active most of the month and remains above the level of the sporadic background for a week centered on August 12th. The sporadic activity is also near maximum as seen from the northern hemisphere and is now more than double the rates from just three months ago. As seen from southern hemisphere, meteor rates are still decent but falling rapidly. The sporadic rates continue their downward slide and the Perseid radiant does not rise high into the sky as seen in the southern hemisphere.

Meteor Activity Outlook for 23-29 July 2016

During this period the moon reaches its last quarter phase on Tuesday July 26th. At this time the moon will lie 90 degrees west of the sun and will rise near midnight local summer time (LST) as seen from mid-northern latitudes. This weekend the waning gibbous moon will rise during the late evening hours and will obscure all but the brighter meteors. Conditions for viewing the meteor activity improve with each passing night as the moon's phase lessens and the moon rises later each morning. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 4 for observers located in the northern hemisphere and 3 for observers located in tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for 16-22 July 2016

During this period the moon reaches its full phase on Tuesday July 19th. At this time the moon will lie opposite the sun and will lie above the horizon all night long. With the bright lunar glare present most of the night this week, this will be the least favorable time to try and view meteor activity this month. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 2 no matter your location. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 16 for those located at mid-northern latitudes and 13 for observers located in tropical southern locations (25S). Rates are reduced this week due to moonlight.

Meteor Activity Outlook for 9-15 July 2016

Radiant Positions at 10pm LDT

Radiant Positions at 2200 Local Summer Time