Activity Outlook

February offers the meteor observer in the northern hemisphere a couple of weak showers plus falling sporadic rates. This may not seem too exiting but you never know when surprises are in store. An errant earthgrazer from the Centaurid complex may shoot northward. Better yet, a bright fireball may light up the sky. February is the start of the fireball season, when an abundance of fireballs seem to occur.

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Monday January 23rd. At this time the moon will be located near the sun and will not be visible at night. This will be the best time of the month to try and view meteor activity as the moon will not interfere with observations, no matter the time of night. As the week progresses the waxing crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will set long before the active morning hours arrive. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near three no matter your location.

During this period the moon reaches it full phase on Monday January 9th. At this time the moon will be located opposite the sun and will be above the horizon the entire night. This is the worst time to try and view meteor activity as the glare from the bright moon will obscure all but the brightest meteors. As the week progresses a small window of dark skies is available between the end of evening twilight and moonrise. Unfortunately this is the worst time of night to try and view meteor activity as rates will only be a couple of meteors per hour. Conditions improve next week as the moon passes its last quarter phase.

January is best known for the Quadrantids, which have the potential of being the best shower of the year. Unfortunately this shower is short lived and occurs during some of the worst weather in the northern hemisphere. Due to the high northern declination (celestial latitude) and short summer nights, little of this activity can be seen south of the equator. Sporadic rates are generally similar in both hemispheres this month.

During this period the moon reaches it new phase on Saturday December 24th. At this time the moon will be located near the sun and will be invisible at night. As the week progresses the waxing crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will not interfere with meteor observing as it is thin and will set long before the active morning hours arrive. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near four as seen from the northern hemisphere and three as seen from the southern hemisphere. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near fifteen as seen from mid-northern latitudes and eight from mid-southern latitudes.

During this period the moon reaches it last quarter phase on Sunday December 18th. The half illuminated moon is still very bright and must be kept out of your field of view for successful meteor observations. During this period, the evening hours, which are unfortunately much less active with meteors, will be completely free of any interfering moonlight. As the week progresses the moon will wane in phase and will rise approximately forty-five minutes later with each passing night. With this scenario, viewing conditions during the more active morning hours will improve with each passing night.