Activity Outlook

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Weekly Meteor Activity Outlook articles by Bob Lunsford. Bob gives outlooks to upcoming meteor activity about once a week. He features showers from the working list of meteor showers as well as suspected radiants. Please refer only to the radiants of the Working list of visual meteor showers in observing reports.

Meteor Activity Outlook for February 6-12, 2016

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Monday February 8th. On that date the moon will be located near the sun and will not be visible at night. As the week progresses the waxing crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will not cause any problems to meteor observers. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 for observers located in the northern hemisphere and 4 for observers located south of the equator. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 10 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 16 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for January 30-February 5, 2016

February offers the meteor observer in the northern hemisphere a couple of weak showers plus falling sporadic rates. This may not seem too exiting but you never know when surprises are in store. An errant earthgrazer from the Centaurid complex may shoot northward. Better yet, a bright fireball may light up the sky. February is the start of the fireball season, when an abundance of fireballs seem to occur. This lasts well into April and seems to occur mostly during the early evening hours. Observers in the southern hemisphere are treated to the Alpha Centaurid peak on the 8th plus the entire Centaurid complex of radiants is active all month long.

Meteor Activity Outlook for January 16-22, 2016

During this period the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Saturday January 16th. On that date the moon will be located 90 degrees east of the sun and will set between midnight and 0100 local standard time (LST) as seen from most North American locations. As the week progresses the waxing gibbous moon will start to interfere with viewing during the morning hours. Toward the end of the week the moon will remain in the sky most of the night making meteor viewing difficult due to the bright lunar glare. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 3 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for January 9-15, 2016

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Sunday January 10th. On that date the moon will be located near the sun and will not be visible at night As the week progresses the waxing crescent moon will emerge into the evening sky but will not pose any problems for those viewing meteor activity. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 2 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 16 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 8 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for January 2-8, 2016

During this period the moon reaches its last quarter phase on Saturday January 2nd. On that date the moon will be located 90 degrees west of the sun and will rise near midnight as seen from mid-northern latitudes of North America. As the week progresses the waning crescent moon will be less of a problem with each passing night. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 2 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 16 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 8 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S).

Meteor Activity Outlook for December 26 - January 1, 2016

During this period the moon wanes from being full to nearly one-half illuminated. This weekend the nearly full moon will obscure all but the brightest meteors. Conditions will sightly improve with each passing night as the phase wanes and the moon rises later each night. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near 3 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 2 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 8 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 6 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). Rates are reduced during this period due to interfering moonlight.