Predictions & Information

Several studies predict that on 8 October between 16h and 21h UT, Earth will encounter trails of dust produced by comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner in the late 19th and early 20th century. This is expected to produce enhanced meteor activity, with apparent rates likely to reach about 1 meteor per minute near 20h Universal Time. Details can be found on our special Draconids page.

We encourage visual observations to be made according to the standard procedure and submitted through the online report form. Such observations will automatically be included in the analysis.

The Perseids are one of the most exciting meteor showers; producing fast-moving shooting stars throughout July and August. Based on IMO observations from recent years, we expect a peak of roughly 100 meteors per hour to occur in the night of August 12-13. Unfortunately, the vast majority of these meteors will not be visible due to the bright light of the full moon which also occurs on August 13.

Nevertheless, we encourage visual observations to be made according to the standard procedure and submitted through the online report form. Such observations will automatically be included in the ZHR activity graph below.

Activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes - click for details.

The Quadrantid meteor shower is expected to peak between roughly 21h UT on January 3 to 06h UT on January 4 (see the shower calendar for details). New Moon creates ideal circumstances for observing the shower from northern hemisphere sites this year. From many such places, the shower's radiant is circumpolar, in northern Boötes, attaining a useful elevation only after local midnight, and rising higher in the sky towards morning twilight. This means places at European longitudes east to those of central Asia should be best-placed to record what happens.

The activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes based on visual observing reports submitted to the IMO - click on the graph for details.

The Geminids is one of the finest, and probably the most reliable, annual meteor shower. Activity exceeds 100 meteors per hour around December 14, with meteors radiating from a point near Castor in constellation Gemini. Geminids are slow, bright and occasionally colorful. Many observers consider the shower to be more spectacular than the famous Perseids in August, but the Geminids are less widely known because of the cold and often clouded December nights in the northern hemisphere.

This year the peak is expected in the morning of December 14 (roughly near 11h UT). Many tens of meteors per hour will be visible in the nights surrounding December 14, with highest rates occuring in the hours after local midnight when the radiant reaches its highest altitude in the sky and the moon has set. More information on the observing conditions can be found in the shower calendar.

The activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes based on visual observing reports submitted to the IMO - click on the graph for details.

The Leonids reach their annual peak on November 17. Because the shower has continued to show fascinatingly variable activity in recent years (e.g., 2009, 2008, 2006), observers should be alert as often as conditions allow in all nights near the nominal peak.

Leonids can only be observed after the radiant in the constellation of Leo rises above the eastern horizon around local midnight (or indeed afterwards south of the equator). This year a waxing gibbous Moon will set around 2 to 3 am local time, providing excellent observing conditions in the hours before sunrise from pretty much any location on Earth. Further details may be found in the shower calendar.

The activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes based on visual observing reports submitted to the IMO - click on the graph for details.

The Perseids are one of the most exciting and dynamic meteor showers; producing fast-moving shooting stars throughout July and August. Based on IMO observations from recent years, we expect the "normal" peak of ~100 meteors per hour to occur in the night of August 12-13 between 18h and 7h Universal Time.

The shower surprised on several occasions over the last two decades by showing outbursts of 150 to 400+ meteors/hour due to the Earth passing through regions of higher density in the dust stream (e.g., ZHR ~200 last year). Simulations by Jeremie Vaubaillon and Mikhail Maslov indicate that we may again encounter 'dust trails' this year, left behind when the parent comet passed the Sun in the years 441, 1479 and 1862. Unfortunately, the distance to the nearest trails is expected to be somewhat larger than last year, and their timing is thought to favour only regions around the Pacific Ocean. However, the predictions are uncertain and worldwide observations by amateur astronomers are required during all nights near the maximum to verify and improve the models.

New Moon on August 10 creates perfect conditions to observe the shower. Perseids are best observed after local midnight, when the radiant gains altitude in the sky. In fact, highest rates are visible towards the early morning hours when the radiant reaches its highest point. We strongly encourage visual observations to be made according to the standard procedure and submitted through the online report form. Such observations will automatically be included in the ZHR activity graph below (click for more results).

Activity graph below is updated every 15 minutes - click for details.